Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paksi SE win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Varda SE had a probability of 25.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paksi SE win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Varda SE win was 0-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paksi SE would win this match.