Groningen have enjoyed a positive start to the season sitting eighth in the Eredivisie table and finding themselves just six points off the top four.
They host a Willem II side that have underwhelmed so far, collecting just eight points from their first nine league games, winning only twice.
Match preview
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Groningen will be pleased with their start to the campaign as they push for a European spot once again this season.
They have not been a particularly expansive side this term, conceding just 11 goals - the sixth-best record in the league - but only scoring 10 themselves - the joint-fifth worst record.
However, by keeping games tight, they have picked up a respectable 14 points from their opening nine games, and are the only team so far this term to beat Ajax in the league.
Groningen have regularly hovered around the final European spots over the last few seasons, but have enjoyed some encouraging results this campaign, including a 1-1 draw against second-placed Vitesse last time out to go with the win over Ajax, and could be set for a strong finish if they can consistently beat weaker opponents.
For Willem II, however, their performances this season represent a failure to build on the promising form of the last campaign.
Adrie Koster's side were fifth in the league standings when the season was called off due to the coronavirus pandemic, but this term they have won just twice and are just five points clear of the automatic relegation places.
They have won just twice and their poor form owes in large part to their struggles in front of goal, netting a meagre nine goals so far - the joint-second worst tally in the league.
A European hangover cannot be blamed either, as Willem II did not qualify for the group stages of the Europa League, with their last fixture in the competition coming in late September.
Groningen Eredivisie form: WDWWLD
Willem II Eredivisie form: LLDLLW
Team News
Groningen boss Danny Buijs has a couple of absentees ahead of the visit of Willem II on Sunday.
Wessel Dammers is suspended, while Arjen Robben is sidelined through injury.
Willem manager Koster, however, has a far lengthier list to deal with.
Elton Kabangu and Kwasi Okyere Wriedt are likely to be sidelined, while Robbin Ruiter and Dries Saddiki are also doubts. Derrick Kohn is suspended.
Groningen possible starting lineup:
Padt; Miguel, Itakura, Van Hintum; J. Van Kaam, D. Van Kaam, Matusiwa, Gudmundsson; El Messaoudi; Joosten, Larsen
Willem II possible starting lineup:
Brondeel; Owusu, Holmen, Peters, Nelom; Llonch, Ndayishimiye, Saglam; Nunnely, Pavlidis, Romeny
We say: Groningen 2-1 Willem II
Groningen are enjoying a much better season than Willem II and, particularly on home soil, will expect to come away with all three points.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 42.27%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 31.7% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Willem II win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Groningen in this match.
