Gremio will attempt to close the gap in the standings as look to stave off relegation in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A when they host Ceara on Sunday at Arena do Gremio in Porto Alegre.
Immortal Tricolor came away empty-handed in their last league fixture, conceding with 11 minutes remaining to lose 1-0 to Corinthians, while Vozao gave up a goal in each half, dropping a 2-0 decision to America Mineiro.
Match preview
© Reuters
A slow start to the 2021 campaign continues to haunt Gremio after 18 games, as they are in a very unfamiliar position of having to fight to stay alive in the top flight.
They went winless in their opening nine league matches, prompting the club to bring in Luiz Felipe Scolari for a fourth stint at the helm of this team.
Since the former World Cup winning coach took over, they have taken some baby steps forward, going unbeaten in his first three games in charge, while also putting together a solid month of results in August, winning four of their five league fixtures and advancing to the quarter-finals of the Copa do Brasil.
Under the leadership of 'Big Phil' they have done a much better job of limiting the amount of scoring opportunities of their opponents, allowing no more than three shots on target in four of their previous five Serie A matches.
Their problem all season long has been a lack of quality in the attacking zone, having gone goalless in nine games in the league this year, but they do have the luxury and having played the fewest number of matches (17) so if they can take care of business they can get themselves out of their current predicament.
The season is not quite half over for this team, but this is already the worst domestic campaign we have seen from this side since earning promotion into the Brazilian top flight after the 2005 season, as they have only finished in the bottom half of the table once, finishing no worse than sixth in their previous four league campaigns.
© Reuters
After beginning last month on a positive note beating Fortaleza 3-1, things are starting to trend downwards for Guto Ferreira and Ceara.
Despite going winless in their last four league games, it has not really impacted their standing in Serie A, as they currently sit in 10th place and only a point back of seventh place Fluminense.
They began the season with a big 3-2 win over Gremio, but they have not been nearly as clinical in front of goal since that game, having gone goalless in six encounters.
Even though Vovo are not the most impressive side in Serie A, we are seeing them start to adapt and learn to play in the highest division in Brazil, finishing 11th in 2020 and currently in a position for their best ever finish in the top flight since earning promotion in 2018.
Their play away from home is definitely a trouble spot as they have not won a road fixture all season, although they were able to hold the reigning champions Flamengo to a draw, while also keeping the second-highest scoring team in the league Bragantino scoreless.
Currently sitting six points clear of the relegation zone has them in a much better position heading into the second half of this season, and with three of their next four matches against teams either in or near that relegation line, putting together a winning streak now could take a lot of pressure off a side who barely stayed in the top flight in 2018 and 2019.
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Gremio will not have Maicon available following his red card in their last fixture against Corinthians after being on the field for only 15 minutes in the second half.
Miguel Borja leads the team in goals this year with three, including two in his last three home fixtures, while Lucas Silva and Rafinha each picked up their first assists of the season in their last victory over Bahia.
The team did a much better job defensively against Corinthians as Gabriel Chapeco only faced one shot on target, although they still lost 1-0.
Scolari made four changes to the starting lineup from the team that started in their 4-0 defeat to Flamengo in their Copa do Brasil quarter-final, as Ruan replaced Walter Kannemann in central defence, Jaminto Campaz took the place of Lucas Silva and Ferreira replaced Douglas Costa, who is currently on loan from the Italian giants Juventus.
The last time these two teams met in the season opener, Jorginho was the hero, scoring the winner in injury time, while Rick was able to score against his former side and Lima will be hoping to get another start after joining Ceara earlier this year after featuring for Gremio from 2015-2020.
Cleber has two goals in his career against Gremio and Richard has conceded five goals in his last two road fixtures but has still picked up seven clean sheets this season.
After scoring 13 goals a year ago, Vinicius has only two so far in this campaign but was able to find the back of the net in their last home game, while Fernando Sobral has only one assist so far this season, after three in 2020.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Tressoldi, Geromel; Rafina; Villasanti, Santos; Alisson, Campaz, Pereira; Costa
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Pachedo, Otavio, Messias, Fabinho; Oliveira, Sobral; Lima, Vinicius, Rick; Cleber
We say: Gremio 2-0 Ceara
Even though they lost their last home game, Gremio are showing signs of improvement - especially on the defensive end - so shutting down a side that has struggled all year to score on the road should not be an issue for 'Big Phil' and this team.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 46.37%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 26.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.2%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
