Club Friendlies 4
Aug 19, 2026 7.00pm
Estadio El Toralín

Ponferradina vs Real Madrid Castilla - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ponferradina

All competitions
Club Friendlies 4
Last game
Aug 8, 2026 6.00pm
Marino de Luanco 0 - 3 Ponferradina

Real Madrid Castilla

All competitions
Club Friendlies 4
Last game
Aug 15, 2026 10.00am
Real Madrid Castilla 0 - 0 Mirandes

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ponferradina win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for Real Madrid Castilla has a probability of 32.12% and a draw has a probability of 28.15%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Real Madrid Castilla win is 0-1 (9.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.59%).

Result

Ponferradina 39.78% (+0.63)
Draw 28.15% (-0.24)
Real Madrid Castilla 32.12% (-0.35)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.46% (+0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.72% (+0.15)
Under 1.5 29.28% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 45.87% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 54.13% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 24.51% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 75.49% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 13.05% (+0.05)
Under 4.5 86.95% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Ponferradina 31.58% (+1.07)
Draw 45.89% (-0.97)
Real Madrid Castilla 22.53% (-0.11)

Team To Score First

Ponferradina 52.81% (+1.36)
No Goal 9.42% (-0.14)
Real Madrid Castilla 37.77% (-1.22)

Corners

Over 8 40.71% (-4.05)
Equal 8 11.92% (-0.20)
Under 8 47.37% (+4.25)
Over 9 30.09% (-3.52)
Equal 9 10.62% (-0.54)
Under 9 59.29% (+4.05)
Over 10.5 21.36% (-2.81)
Under 10.5 78.64% (+2.80)

Ponferradina Goals

Over 1.5 37.23% (+0.68)
Under 1.5 62.77% (-0.68)
Over 2.5 14.23% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 85.77% (-0.19)
Over 3.5 4.41% (+0.11)
Under 3.5 95.59% (-0.10)

Real Madrid Castilla Goals

Over 0.5 65.58% (-0.19)
Under 0.5 34.42% (+0.20)
Over 1.5 31.23% (-0.45)
Under 1.5 68.77% (+0.46)
Over 2.5 11.43% (-0.25)
Under 2.5 88.57% (+0.25)
Over 3.5 3.64% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 96.36% (+0.05)

Score analysis

Ponferradina 39.78%
Draw 28.15%
Real Madrid Castilla 32.11%
Ponferradina
1-0 @ 10.64% (-0.04)
2-1 @ 8.89% (+0.30)
2-0 @ 7.05% (+0.19)
3-1 @ 3.61%
3-0 @ 3.05% (+0.11)
3-2 @ 2.24% (-0.04)
Other @ 4.3% (+0.13)
Total : 39.78%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.59% (-0.13)
0-0 @ 9.42% (-0.14)
2-2 @ 5.11% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.11% (-0.03)
Total : 28.15%
Real Madrid Castilla
0-1 @ 9.26% (+0.09)
1-2 @ 7.23% (-0.21)
0-2 @ 5.22% (+0.03)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.09)
0-3 @ 2.18% (-0.12)
2-3 @ 1.95% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.53% (-0.04)
Total : 32.11%

Head to Head

Segunda Division
Mar 29, 2014 5.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
  • Jonathan Ruiz 23' yellowcard
Segunda Division
Oct 27, 2013 5.15pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Franco 20' goal
  • Jaime Romero Gomez 45' yellowcard
  • Omar 61' yellowcard
  • Pulido 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Javier Carpio 45'
  • redcard Javier Carpio 46'
  • yellowcard Miguel Robuste Colomer 47'
  • goal Yuri 84'
  • yellowcard Julen Castaneda 87'