Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zorya Luhansk win with a probability of 41.32%. A win for Al Raed had a probability of 33.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zorya Luhansk win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Al Raed win was 0-1 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zorya Luhansk would win this match.