Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shimizu S-Pulse win with a probability of 41.78%. A win for Jubilo Iwata had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Jubilo Iwata win was 0-1 (8.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.