Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shimizu S-Pulse win with a probability of 48.05%. A win for Matsumoto Yamaga had a probability of 26.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.47%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Matsumoto Yamaga win was 0-1 (7.18%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.