Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Girona had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.96%) and 2-0 (6%). The likeliest Girona win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.

Result
Newcastle United	Draw	Girona
43.5% ( -0.03)	23.21% ( 0.01)	33.29% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 63.59% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.24% (

-0.06)

37.76% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40% (

-0.06)

60% (

0.06)

Newcastle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.19% (

-0.03)

17.81% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.46% (

-0.06)

48.54% (

0.06)

Girona Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.37% (

-0.02)

22.63% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.74% (

-0.02)

56.26% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Newcastle United 43.5%

Girona 33.29%

Draw 23.21%

Newcastle United	Draw	Girona
2-1 @ 8.92% 1-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.45% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.64% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0) Other @ 3.9% Total : 43.5%	1-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.62% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.21%	1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.99% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.8% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0) Other @ 3.27% Total : 33.29%