Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi win with a probability of 56.8%. A draw had a probability of 25.82% and a win for FC Oleksandriya had a probability of 17.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.73%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%) , while for a FC Oleksandriya win it was 0-1 (6.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.