Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Aluminij had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Aluminij win was 1-0 (8.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood.