Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arda win with a probability of 42.96%. A draw had a probability of 28.68% and a win for Neftchi had a probability of 28.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%) , while for a Neftchi win it was 0-1 (10.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.