Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi win with a probability of 44.48%. A win for Septemvri Sofia had a probability of 28.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Septemvri Sofia win was 1-0 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.