Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jagiellonia Bialystok win with a probability of 46.03%. A win for CSKA 1948 Sofia had a probability of 30.31% and a draw had a probability of 23.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest CSKA 1948 Sofia win was 0-1 (6.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.