Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Liepaja win with a probability of 41.21%. A win for FS Jelgava had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a FK Liepaja win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.04%) and 2-0 (5.73%). The likeliest FS Jelgava win was 1-2 (7.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.