Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FK Liepaja win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for FS Jelgava had a probability of 34.51% and a draw had a probability of 24.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a FK Liepaja win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.01%) and 2-0 (5.72%). The likeliest FS Jelgava win was 1-2 (7.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.