Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alcoyano win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for FK Liepaja had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alcoyano win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest FK Liepaja win was 0-1 (8.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.