Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paide win with a probability of 53.42%. A win for FK Liepaja had a probability of 24.51% and a draw had a probability of 22.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paide win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.05%) and 0-2 (7.87%). The likeliest FK Liepaja win was 2-1 (5.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.89%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.