Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Tula win with a probability of 51.19%. A draw had a probability of 26.36% and a win for Atyrau had a probability of 22.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.99%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%) , while for a Atyrau win it was 0-1 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.