Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 46.85%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 29.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.53%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 2-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.