/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fmcilog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fmillog_1.png)
-
Erling Haaland
19'
-
Erling Haaland
19'
-
James McAtee
55'
-
James McAtee
55'
-
Lorenzo Colombo
30'
-
Lorenzo Colombo
30'
-
Lorenzo Colombo
34'
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Lorenzo Colombo
34'
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Alexis Saelemaekers
73'
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Alexis Saelemaekers
73'
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Marco Nasti
78'
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Marco Nasti
78'
Manchester City vs AC Milan - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F20%2Fpep-guardiola_2.jpg)
Predicted Lineups
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F24%2F30%2Fpep-guardiola.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 54.69%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.99%) and 1-0 (6.65%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-3 win for AC Milan in this match.
Result
Manchester City
54.69%
▲
(+0.66)
Draw
20.95%
▼
(-0.15)
AC Milan
24.35%
▼
(-0.51)
Both Teams to Score:
65.05%
▼
(-0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5
67.04%
▲
(+0.20)
Under 2.5
32.96%
▼
(-0.20)
Over 3.5
45.32%
▲
(+0.23)
Under 3.5
54.67%
▼
(-0.23)
Over 4.5
26.57%
▲
(+0.20)
Under 4.5
73.42%
▼
(-0.20)
Manchester City Goals
Over 0.5
87.77%
▲
(+0.26)
Under 0.5
12.23%
▼
(-0.26)
Over 1.5
62.08%
▲
(+0.54)
Under 1.5
37.92%
▼
(-0.54)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5
74.11%
▼
(-0.27)
Under 0.5
25.88%
▲
(+0.27)
Over 1.5
39.13%
▼
(-0.36)
Under 1.5
60.86%
▲
(+0.36)
Score analysis
Manchester City
54.69%
Draw
20.95%
AC Milan
24.35%
Manchester City
2-1
@
9.45%
▲
(+0.02)
2-0 @ 6.99% ▲ (+0.07)
1-0 @ 6.65% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.62% ▲ (+0.08)
3-0 @ 4.9% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 4.47% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.08)
4-0 @ 2.57% ▲ (+0.08)
4-2 @ 2.35% ▲ (+0.04)
5-1 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.05)
5-0 @ 1.08% ▲ (+0.05)
4-3 @ 1.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 54.69%
2-0 @ 6.99% ▲ (+0.07)
1-0 @ 6.65% ▼ (-0.01)
3-1 @ 6.62% ▲ (+0.08)
3-0 @ 4.9% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 4.47% ▲ (+0.02)
4-1 @ 3.48% ▲ (+0.08)
4-0 @ 2.57% ▲ (+0.08)
4-2 @ 2.35% ▲ (+0.04)
5-1 @ 1.46% ▲ (+0.05)
5-0 @ 1.08% ▲ (+0.05)
4-3 @ 1.06% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.63%
Total : 54.69%
Draw
1-1
@
8.99%
▼
(-0.08)
2-2 @ 6.38% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 3.16% ▼ (-0.04)
3-3 @ 2.02% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.95%
2-2 @ 6.38% ▼ (-0.04)
0-0 @ 3.16% ▼ (-0.04)
3-3 @ 2.02% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 20.95%
AC Milan
1-2
@
6.07%
▼
(-0.10)
0-1 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.08)
0-2 @ 2.89% ▼ (-0.08)
2-3 @ 2.88% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 2.74% ▼ (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.3% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 4.19%
Total : 24.35%
0-1 @ 4.28% ▼ (-0.08)
0-2 @ 2.89% ▼ (-0.08)
2-3 @ 2.88% ▼ (-0.04)
1-3 @ 2.74% ▼ (-0.07)
0-3 @ 1.3% ▼ (-0.05)
Other @ 4.19%
Total : 24.35%