Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 54.69%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 24.35% and a draw had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.99%) and 1-0 (6.65%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-3 win for AC Milan in this match.

Result
Manchester City	Draw	AC Milan
54.69% ( 0.56)	20.95% ( -0.13)	24.35% ( -0.44)

Both teams to score 65.05% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.04% (

0.15)

32.96% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.32% (

0.17)

54.67% (

-0.17)

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.77% (

0.21)

12.23% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.08% (

0.44)

37.92% (

-0.44)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.11% (

-0.24)

25.88% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.13% (

-0.32)

60.86% (

0.32)

Score Analysis

Manchester City 54.69%

AC Milan 24.35%

Draw 20.95%

Manchester City	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.45% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.65% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 4.9% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.48% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 2.57% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.04) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.03) 4-3 @ 1.06% ( 0) 5-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.64% Total : 54.69%	1-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.38% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.4% Total : 20.95%	1-2 @ 6.07% ( -0.08) 0-1 @ 4.28% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.3% Total : 24.35%