Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.88%. A win for Celtic had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.79%) and 2-0 (5.3%). The likeliest Celtic win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.