With only one goal separating the two sides after a closely-fought first leg, Flora Tallinn and Omonia Nicosia renew hostilities in the Europa League third qualifying round at the A. Le Coq Arena on Tuesday.
The Estonian hosts find themselves 1-0 down in the tie after Marinos Tzionis struck after 12 minutes in the first leg, and Royal Antwerp lie in wait for the victors of this battle.
Match preview
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Despite notching up five goals without reply over Hibernians in their first Champions League encounters of the season, Flora Tallinn were no match for Legia Warsaw in the second qualifying round and dropped down to the Europa League following a 3-1 aggregate defeat.
Thr reigning Estonian champions are now staring down the barrel of elimination from Europe entirely, as Tzionis's early strike propelled Omonia to a narrow success in the first leg, meaning that their hopes of a first-group stage appearance are hanging by a thread.
Flora came so close yet so far to reaching the Europa League proper in the 2020-21 season but suffered a 3-1 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb at the final hurdle, and the 13-time national champions must overturn a dampening run of results if they are to have any chance of back-to-back appearances in the playoff round.
Indeed, manager Jurgen Henn - a relative novice in the dugout at just 34 - has now seen his side lose three and draw one of their last four games in all competitions, with the stalemate coming in a 0-0 draw with Paide in their most recent league encounter.
Flora remain unbeaten in the Estonian top flight after 16 matches with the campaign in full swing, but defeat to Legia Warsaw in their last home clash ended a 17-game unbeaten run at the A. Le Coq Arena, with their most recent loss at home before that also coming in Europe to Suduva in August 2020.
Coincidentally, Dinamo Zagreb were also the ones to end Omonia's Champions League dream earlier this season, as the 21-time Cypriot champions were sent packing 3-0 on aggregate by the Croats to drop down to Europa League qualifying.
As is the case with Flora, Henning Berg's men have not had to work around a weekend league fixture ahead of Tuesday's second leg - with their new domestic season starting on the 20th - and Omonia are firmly of the belief that a second successive appearance in the group stages could be on the cards.
In the 2020-21 Europa League, Omonia would glean four points from two fixtures with Greek side PAOK, but PSV Eindhoven and Granada proved too strong for the Cypriots, who finished rock bottom of Group E in their inaugural appearance at the proper tournament.
Omonia also warmed up for the first leg with a dominant 5-1 friendly success over Olympiada Lympion and nerve-wracking penalty shootout win over Anorthosis in the Super Cup last month, so the momentum is firmly with the visitors as they eye a playoff tie with Antwerp later in August.
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Team News
Flora forward Mark Anders Lepik continues his spell on the sidelines after a cruciate ligament rupture, but top scorer Rauno Sappinen - who has 16 goals in all competitions this term - was always going to get the nod up front.
Rauno Alliku and Markus Poom were only considered for places on the bench in the first leg, but the two players - with seven goals and six assists between them this season - should come into consideration for starting roles here.
Meanwhile, Omonia wingers Ernest Asante and recent arrival Iyayi Atiemwen remain in the treatment room, although the latter could make his return from adductor problems within the next couple of weeks.
Veteran defender Tomas Hubocan had to be withdrawn at half time in the first leg, and the 35-year-old's spot in defence could be taken by Hector Yuste if he is not passed fit for this game.
Jordi Gomez - an FA Cup winner with Wigan Athletic - will man the Omonia engine room as captain, while 18-year-old prospect Loizos Loizou will hope for another start in the number 10 role.
Flora possible starting lineup:
Igonen; Lilander, Kuusk, Purg, Kallaste; Vassiljev, Miller, Poom; Alliku, Sappinen, Ojamaa
Omonia possible starting lineup:
Fabiano; Shehu, Lang, Yuste, Lecjaks; Gomez, Diskerud; Bautheac, Loizou, Tzionis; Scepovic
We say: Flora 1-1 Omonia (Omonia win 2-1 on aggregate)
Expected alterations in the final third from Flora coupled with the potential loss of the experienced Hubocan could spell trouble for Omonia's defence, who have their work cut out for them to keep another clean sheet.
However, the visitors' first leg performance embodied that of a side who know what it takes to make the group stage, and we are backing Omonia to hold on and advance to the playoff round following a second-leg stalemate.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flora win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Omonia had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flora win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.1%) and 2-0 (5.87%). The likeliest Omonia win was 1-2 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%).
