A defeat by more than four goals is the only thing that stands in the way of Flamengo making it to the final of the Copa Libertadores for a third time in the last four years as they host Velez Sarsfield at the Maracana on Wednesday.
The runners-up at this tournament in 2021 were convincing 4-0 winners in the opening leg of this semi-final, their seventh straight triumph at this year's competition, while El Fortin lost their first Libertadores encounter since falling 2-1 at home to Nacional on matchday three.
Match preview
© Reuters
Another impressive performance in the knockout stage has Mengao on the verge of a return trip to the final of this competition, conceding just once since the last 16, posting three straight clean sheets.
Following a challenging debut to his third stint as manager of this club, losing three of his first four matches in charge, Dorival Junior has dramatically transformed their fortunes, with Flamengo losing only one of their last 21 matches in all competitions.
They came into this tournament with some unfinished business following a heartbreaking 2-1 defeat in extra time against Palmeiras in the 2021 final, and since advancing into the knockout round this year, they have looked practically unbeatable, particularly at home, where they have outscored their opponents 8-1 in their previous two Libertadores encounters.
No side has been able to beat Flamengo at the famous Maracana in over three months, with their last home defeat coming in the Brasileiro Serie A on June 5, when an injury-time strike from Hercules gave Fortaleza a narrow 2-1 victory.
While this team looked unpredictable and inconsistent at the beginning of this season, the two-time Libertadores champions know how to hold onto a lead in the knockout phase of this tournament, having been eliminated only once since 2008 when leading after the opening leg.
In 20 previous matches versus clubs from Argentina in this competition, Flamengo have only suffered one defeat but have never lost in any of those encounters played in Rio.
Their 1-1 draw versus Ceara this past weekend was the first time that Urubu had conceded the opening goal in a home game since late July, when they went behind early in the second half against Avai in a match that Flamengo wound up winning 2-1.
© Reuters
The surprise story of this competition, Velez Sarsfield will need a lot of magic to pull off another upset at this tournament, though their past history at the 2022 Libertadores suggests it might be possible.
Needing a win in their final group stage encounter to assure passage into the knockout round, El Fortin pulled off a massive 4-0 victory against Estudiantes, while this Tuesday will mark one year since they beat Union by that same score in a domestic fixture.
Both of those victories, however, came at home, and the club from Liniers have only captured one away match historically versus a Brazilian opponent at the Libertadores, beating Athletico Paranaense 3-1 in the 2014 group stage.
That loss to Flamengo in the opening leg last week was their worst defeat in a competitive encounter since being routed 7-1 domestically against Boca Juniors in March 2021.
It was also the first time that this team had lost an away fixture at this tournament since matchday one and the first time they had conceded on the road in the knockout phase.
Alexander Medina's men have only captured one of their previous 11 away matches in all competitions, coming back to score a goal in the 90th minute to draw Independiente 1-1 in their last road game.
Velez Sarsfield have tallied multiple times only once in their last eight competitive fixtures, and they will need to find some goals from somewhere on Wednesday.
In the history of this competition, no club has ever come back to win a knockout stage tie after trailing by four goals, though Mexican side Toluca gave Sao Paulo a scare in 2016, winning 3-1 after losing that opening round of 16 affair 4-0.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
A hat trick from Pedro in the opening leg of this tie put the Flamengo striker up to 11 goals to lead all scorers in this competition, with the other tally coming from Everton Ribeiro, moving him into a tie for second on the team alongside Gabriel Barbosa (four), while Santos posted his third successive clean sheet at this tournament.
Barbosa set up a pair of goals in the opening leg, moving him up to three assists in this year's tournament, while Leo Pereira notched his first of the competition in that encounter.
Bruno Henrique and Rodrigo Caio are unlikely to feature in this match because of knee injuries, while Giorgian De Arrascaeta could still be out due to a knock.
Lucas Janson has been the main contributor for Sarsfield in this competition, scoring seven times, putting him in a tie for second in the 2022 Libertadores, while Julian Fernandez, Lucas Pratto and Matias de los Santos are all tied for second with two goals each.
Luca Orellano leads them with three assists in this competition, one more than Janson, while Lucas Hoyos has four clean sheets.
Diego Godin continues to nurse a knee injury, and there were four changes made to their starting 11 versus Newell's Old Boys this weekend as Leonardo Burian was in goal, while Tomas Guidara, Agustin Mulet and Fernandez all began with Hoyos, Leonardo Jara, Santiago Caseres and Orellano relegated to the bench.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Santos; Luis, Pereira, Luiz, Varela; Vidal, Maia, Ribeiro; Diego; Barbosa, Everton
Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Jara, De los Santos, Gomez, Ortega; Garayalde; Sonora, Mulet; Fernandez, Pratto, Janson
We say: Flamengo 3-0 Velez Sarsfield (Flamengo advances 7-0 on aggregate).
Flamengo have never lost a two-leg semi-final in this competition and have not conceded four goals in a match since a 4-0 domestic defeat to Atletico Mineiro on November 8, 2020.
When you combine that with the fact that the Argentines are winless in their last six matches in all competitions, there is every reason to suggest that the clock will strike midnight on the Velez Sarsfield Cinderella story this week.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Joel Lefevre
