Brazilian outfit Flamengo host Argentinian side Velez Sarsfield in their final group-stage encounter of the Copa Libertadores on Friday.
Both teams have already qualified for the last 16, but a win for either side would see them finish top of Group G.
Match preview
© Reuters
Flamengo are one of just four sides in this year's Copa Libertadores who remain unbeaten heading into the final game of the group stage.
Three successive wins to begin their campaign were followed by consecutive 2-2 draws against Union La Calera and most recently LDU Quinto last week.
An 88th-minute equaliser from Flamengo centre-back Gustavo Henrique rescued a point for the Brazilians, who sit top of Group G and two points clear of Friday's opponents Velez.
Since that draw, Flamengo claimed their 37th Campeonato Carioca title and their fourth in the last five years, after beating Fluminense 4-2 on aggregate last weekend.
The Rubro-Negro now turn their attention back to the Copa Libertadores and head coach Rogerio Ceni will be keen for his side to end the group stage on a high with a victory over Velez this Friday, before progressing into the latter stages of the competition, which they won in 2019.
© Reuters
After a poor start in Group G, with two defeats in the opening two games, Velez have since won three successive matches, including a 2-1 victory at home to Union La Calera last week.
A frantic opening five minutes saw Jeisson Vargas cancel out Cristian Tarragona's earlier strike. The game then settled down until the 39th minute when Thiago Almada tapped in from close range to put Velez back in front.
The hosts were able to hold on in the second half for three crucial points, confirming their place in the round of 16 for the first time since 2014.
Former Southampton manager Mauricio Pellegrino, who replaced Gabriel Heinze at the helm in April 2020, is now hoping his side can finish top of Group G.
However, the Argentinians need to beat Flamengo – who are currently on an 11-game unbeaten run in all competitions – if they are to achieve this.
- W
- W
- W
- D
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Flamengo will still be without defensive midfielder Thiago Maia due to a cruciate ligament rupture, with the 24-year-old set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines.
Midfielder Willian Arao will also miss Friday's game after he was dismissed against LDU Quito last week, so playmaker Diego could be handed a start.
Former Inter Milan striker Gabriel Barbosa, who is currently the joint-top scorer in the competition with six strikes to his name, is set to lead the line alongside Pedro, who scored in last week's 2-2 draw.
As for Velez, young right-back Roberto Garcia remains out as he is self-isolating after contracting coronavirus. Tomas Guidara is set to keep his place in the side as a result.
After scoring last week, Tarragona is expected to lead the line as the lone striker, with Almeda, Agustin Bouzat and Lucas Janson all set to operate in advanced midfield roles in behind.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Batista; Viana, Henrique, Pereira; Matheuzinho, Ribeiro, Gerson, Vitinho; Diego; Pedro, Barbosa
Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Guidara, Giannetti, Abram, Ortega; Caseres, Mancuello; Bouzat, Almeda, Janson; Tarragona
We say: Flamengo 2-1 Velez Sarsfield
Last month's reverse fixture between the two teams saw Flamengo win an entertaining encounter 3-2 and Friday's hosts are set to be tested once again, as Velez are looking to win and finish top of Group G.
However, we feel that the Brazilians will secure a narrow victory in Rio de Janeiro to extend their unbeaten record in the competition.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 53.52%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 23.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
