Following a drab goalless stalemate in the first leg of their Europa League third round qualifying battle, FK Zalgiris and NS Mura reconvene at the LFF Stadionas for Thursday's second leg.
With it all to play for, the victors of this tie will book their place in the playoff round against Sturm Graz for the chance to advance to the group stage.
Match preview
There were no goals to be had during a tense encounter between Zalgiris and Mura in their first battle of the third qualifying round, but making the net ripple was hardly an issue for this week's hosts during their most recent league game.
In a highly ideal warm up for Thursday's second leg, Zalgiris eased to a 3-0 victory over Banga in the Lithuanian top flight on Monday, as Josip Tadic, Jakub Sylvestr and 18-year-old Gustas Jarusevicius got the goals which propelled Vladimir Cheburin's men back to where they belong at the top of the pile.
The eight-time A Lyga champions are very rarely kept at bay continentally and domestically - notching up six goals in their four Champions League qualifying games before being sent packing by Ferencvaros - and they can take solace in the fact that they have not failed to score at home in any competition since July 2020.
Such proficiency in front of goal makes Mura's clean sheet in the first leg all the more impressive, but Cheburin's side have found the back of the net in each of their last 24 matches at the LFF Stadionas ahead of a potentially history-making evening, as an appearance in the playoff round would mark their best run in any European competition.
In contrast, Mura just cannot seem to get over the line in any contest at the moment, as their winless run across all tournaments stretched to seven games with a 1-1 league draw at Aluminij on Sunday.
Mitja Lotric's opener for Mura was cancelled out after just 10 minutes by Haris Kadric as Mura's miserable start to their title defence continued, with the Slovenian title holders drawing two and losing two of their opening four league games to sit second from bottom in the standings.
Not since their Champions League first-round endeavours have Ante Simundza's side managed to claim a victory in any competition - a 6-0 aggregate success over Shkendija - and even then they only managed to strike once away from home before netting five on their own turf.
Unlike their opponents, Mura do have previous experience in the Europa League playoff round - a 2012-13 appearance which ended in a 5-1 aggregate defeat to Lazio - but whichever side advances to the final hurdle will undoubtedly hold the underdog tag against Sturm Graz.
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Team News
Zalgiris right-back Marko Karamoko continues to recover from a fracture, meaning that a start for 37-year-old Saulius Mikoliunas - who is banned for their next league encounter - is guaranteed.
Cheburin unsurprisingly rang the changes for his side's clash with Banga, and Mikoliunas should be one of three defensive alterations alongside goalkeeper Edvinas Gertmonas and centre-back Nemanja Ljubisavljevic.
Tadic has put himself into contention for another start with his goal at the weekend and may get the nod up top over Sylvestr, despite the 32-year-old's own strike in league action.
Meanwhile, Mura coach Simundza strayed away from his three-man defence to field a 4-2-3-1 at the weekend - which did not pay off - but he may elect to keep faith in that attacking setup as the visitors go in search of goals.
Lotric should keep his place over Luka Bobicanec in the number 10 role following his goal against Aluminij, while Tomi Horvat and Alen Kozar will hope to be reintroduced to the midfield.
FK Zalgiris possible starting lineup:
Gertmonas; Mikoliunas, Ljubisavljevic, Diaw, Bopesu; Uzela, Verbickas, Onazi; Kyeremeh, Tadic, Videmont
NS Mura possible starting lineup:
Obradovic; Karnicik, Marusko, Gorenc, Sturm; Horvat, Kozar; Kous, Lotric, Mandic; Marosa
We say: FK Zalgiris 2-0 NS Mura (2-0 to Zalgiris on aggregate)
The first leg was as tight an affair as many would have expected, but Zalgiris are the ones with the wind in their sails from a far superior domestic record.
With Mura potentially set to field a more attack-minded setup in the hope of out-scoring their hosts, Zalgiris's more potent forwards ought to take advantage and fire the A Lyga champions to the playoff round for the first time ever.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NS Mura win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for FK Zalgiris had a probability of 38.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a NS Mura win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.17%) and 0-2 (5.08%). The likeliest FK Zalgiris win was 2-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that NS Mura would win this match.
