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FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round Qualifying
Sep 28, 2024 at 3pm UK
Victory Road

Leiston
1 - 1
Hornchurch

Kyran (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Nash (56')
Coverage of the FA Cup Third Round Qualifying clash between Leiston and AFC Hornchurch.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leiston

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Last Game: Leiston 3-1 Brentwood Town
Tuesday, September 17 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

AFC Hornchurch

All competitions
FA Cup
Last Game: Hornchurch 0-2 Chelmsford City
Saturday, September 21 at 3pm in National League South

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Hornchurch win with a probability of 46.47%. A win for Leiston had a probability of 30.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AFC Hornchurch win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Leiston win was 2-1 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.

Result
LeistonDrawAFC Hornchurch
30.43% (0.015999999999998 0.02)23.1% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)46.47% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 62.58% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.5% (0.014000000000003 0.01)38.5% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.21% (0.015999999999998 0.02)60.79% (-0.018000000000001 -0.02)
Leiston Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.33% (0.016000000000005 0.02)24.66% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.8% (0.023000000000003 0.02)59.19% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
AFC Hornchurch Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.06%16.93% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53% (0.0030000000000001 0)47% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Leiston 30.43%
    AFC Hornchurch 46.47%
    Draw 23.1%
LeistonDrawAFC Hornchurch
2-1 @ 7.27% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-0 @ 5.85% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
2-0 @ 4.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 3.39% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 3.01% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 1.91% (0.002 0)
4-1 @ 1.19% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 30.43%
1-1 @ 10.38%
2-2 @ 6.45% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.78% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 23.1%
1-2 @ 9.22% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
0-1 @ 7.42% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
0-2 @ 6.59% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 5.46% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-3 @ 3.9% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 3.82% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 2.42%
0-4 @ 1.73% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 1.7%
Other @ 4.22%
Total : 46.47%

rhs 2.0


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