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FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round Qualifying
Sep 28, 2024 at 3pm UK
War Memorial Sports Ground

Carshalton
3 - 2
Melksham

Bradford (32'), Saunders-Henry (37'), Vose (90+5' pen.)
FT(HT: 2-1)
James (45+1'), Cooper (54')
Coverage of the FA Cup Third Round Qualifying clash between Carshalton Athletic and Melksham Town.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carshalton Athletic

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Last Game: Carshalton 1-0 South Park
Saturday, September 14 at 3pm in FA Cup
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Melksham Town

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Last Game: Banbury 2-3 Melksham
Tuesday, September 17 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carshalton Athletic win with a probability of 56.65%. A win for Melksham Town had a probability of 21.75% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carshalton Athletic win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Melksham Town win was 1-2 (5.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carshalton Athletic would win this match.

Result
Carshalton AthleticDrawMelksham Town
56.65% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)21.6%21.75% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Both teams to score 59.12% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.8% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)39.2% (-0.0069999999999979 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.47% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)61.53% (-0.0080000000000027 -0.01)
Carshalton Athletic Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.29% (-0.0020000000000095 -0)13.71% (0.0019999999999989 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
59.05% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)40.95% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Melksham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.51% (0.010999999999996 0.01)31.49% (-0.011000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.12% (0.012999999999998 0.01)67.87% (-0.012 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Carshalton Athletic 56.65%
    Melksham Town 21.75%
    Draw 21.6%
Carshalton AthleticDrawMelksham Town
2-1 @ 9.85% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 8.58% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 8.52% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-1 @ 6.52%
3-0 @ 5.65% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 3.77% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 3.24%
4-0 @ 2.81% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.87% (0.00099999999999989 0)
5-1 @ 1.29%
5-0 @ 1.12%
Other @ 3.44%
Total : 56.65%
1-1 @ 9.91% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
2-2 @ 5.69% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.32% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.45% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 21.6%
1-2 @ 5.73% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-1 @ 4.99%
0-2 @ 2.88% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-3 @ 2.21% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 2.19% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 1.11% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.64%
Total : 21.75%