Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 44.85%. A win for Hapoel Be'er Sheva had a probability of 33.06% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.75%) and 3-1 (5.49%). The likeliest Hapoel Be'er Sheva win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.