Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.63%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fiorentina in this match.