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Europa Conference League header WWW

UEFA Conference League
Fiorentina logo
Europa Conference League | Playoffs | 1st Leg
Aug 18, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stadio Artemio Franchi
FC Twente logo

Fiorentina
2 - 1
FC Twente

Gonzalez (2'), Cabral (31')
Milenkovic (39'), Amrabat (90+1'), Maleh (90+5')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Cerny (65')
Smal (33'), Propper (55'), Vlap (62'), Cerny (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Fiorentina and FC Twente, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Fiorentina

Last Six:
Last Game: Fiorentina 3-2 Cremonese
Sunday, August 14 at 5.30pm in Serie A

FC Twente

Last Six:
Last Game: FC Twente 3-0 Sittard
Sunday, August 14 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

We said: Fiorentina 2-1 FC Twente

 Both sides clearly know the way to goal - Twente have already scored 11 times in four competitive games; Fiorentina netted three in their first match at the weekend - so this could be an open encounter. The hosts should have enough nous, though, to take a one-goal lead to the Netherlands next week. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 45.48%. A win for FC Twente had a probability of 31.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.63%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest FC Twente win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fiorentina in this match.

Result
FiorentinaDrawFC Twente
45.48% (0.142 0.14) 22.68% (0.059999999999999 0.06) 31.85% (-0.198 -0.2)
Both teams to score 64.95% (-0.324 -0.32)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.28% (-0.38499999999999 -0.38)35.72% (0.386 0.39)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.21% (-0.42599999999999 -0.43)57.79% (0.43 0.43)
Fiorentina Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.77% (-0.093999999999994 -0.09)16.23% (0.097999999999999 0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.26% (-0.177 -0.18)45.74% (0.179 0.18)
FC Twente Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.53% (-0.29599999999999 -0.3)22.47% (0.298 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.98% (-0.446 -0.45)56.02% (0.448 0.45)
Score Analysis
    Fiorentina 45.48%
    FC Twente 31.85%
    Draw 22.68%
FiorentinaDrawFC Twente
2-1 @ 9% (0.035 0.04)
1-0 @ 6.63% (0.106 0.11)
2-0 @ 6.03% (0.077 0.08)
3-1 @ 5.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 4.07% (-0.034 -0.03)
3-0 @ 3.65% (0.034 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.48% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.85% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.66% (0.01 0.01)
4-3 @ 0.92% (-0.02 -0.02)
5-1 @ 0.9% (-0.005 -0.01)
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 45.48%
1-1 @ 9.9% (0.071 0.07)
2-2 @ 6.72% (-0.034 -0.03)
0-0 @ 3.65% (0.07 0.07)
3-3 @ 2.03% (-0.035 -0.03)
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 22.68%
1-2 @ 7.39% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.45% (0.057 0.06)
0-2 @ 4.06% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 3.68% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-3 @ 3.34% (-0.047 -0.05)
0-3 @ 2.02% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-4 @ 1.37% (-0.027 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.25% (-0.029 -0.03)
Other @ 3.28%
Total : 31.85%

How you voted: Fiorentina vs FC Twente

Fiorentina
69.6%
Draw
9.8%
FC Twente
20.5%
112
rhs 2.0
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