UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Second Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 27, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stadion Z'dezele

Celje
3 - 4
Guimaraes

(4-4 on aggregate)

Bobicanec (1'), Matko (59'), Edmilson (90+6')
Bobicanec (45'), Zec (69')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Silva (25'), Silva (35'), Amaro (70'), Nogueira (80')
Handel (33'), Silva (67')

Coverage of the Conference League Second Qualifying Round clash between Celje and Vitoria de Guimaraes.

Form, Standings, Stats

Celje

All competitions

Last Game: Aluminij 2-2 Celje
Sunday, July 23 at 7.15pm in Slovenian PrvaLiga

Goals
for

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Last Game: Guimaraes 1-2 Wolves
Sunday, July 9 at 1pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Celje had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Celje win was 1-0 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.

Result
Celje	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
29.2% ( 0.37)	24.73% ( -0.01)	46.07% ( -0.36)

Both teams to score 56.08% (

0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.29% (

0.23)

46.71% (

-0.23)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.02% (

0.22)

68.97% (

-0.22)

Celje Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.41% (

0.38)

29.59% (

-0.38)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.37% (

0.46)

65.62% (

-0.46)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.65% (

-0.06)

20.35% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.25% (

-0.1)

52.75% (

0.1)

Score Analysis

Celje 29.2%

Vitoria de Guimaraes 46.07%

Draw 24.73%

Celje	Draw	Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.89% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.3% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.3% Total : 29.2%	1-1 @ 11.67% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.73%	0-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 9.29% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 7.63% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 4.93% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 4.05% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 3% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.61% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 46.07%