Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 76.81%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Neftchi Baku had a probability of 8.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.94%) and 1-0 (10.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.21%), while for a Neftchi Baku win it was 0-1 (2.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.