Following three games without a win, and with their Scudetto challenge now starting to falter, AC Milan close out an eventful 2021 with a trip to Empoli on Wednesday.
While the Rossoneri lost narrowly to title rivals Napoli at the weekend, their final hosts before the mid-season break added another point to an impressive tally since returning to Serie A.
Match preview
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Failing to find the net for the first time this season, Milan were beaten again on Sunday night - their fourth defeat in eight games since November's Derby della Madonnina - and have been hauled back into third place in the table by their latest conquerors.
In an encounter decided by an early Eljif Elmas header, Napoli managed to hold on despite a controversial VAR decision at the end of the 90 minutes, when Franck Kessie's 'goal' was ruled out for an offside call on Olivier Giroud, who lay prone in the visitors' penalty area.
The 1-0 result enabled the Partenopei to catch Milan on points and overhaul them in second place thanks to a superior goal difference. Even more concerning for the Rossoneri, perhaps, is that city rivals Inter have stolen four points clear of them both to be crowned Campioni d'Inverno (Winter Champions).
As Stefano Pioli's side found to their cost last year, such a title guarantees nothing when silverware is handed out in the spring, but they will be keen to limit their deficit with a win on Wednesday, as the first half of the season draws to a close.
In their last match of 2021, Milan could become only the second team in Serie A history to achieve at least 17 away league wins in a calendar year - following Napoli's total of 18 four years ago - but they have won just one of their three league fixtures on the road since November and are visibly starting to stutter.
It took the spectacular late intervention of Zlatan Ibrahimovic - who appeared fatigued and isolated for much of Sunday's loss - to salvage a point at Udinese last week, just days after their Champions League exit was confirmed by a 2-1 reverse at Anfield.
Therefore, what once would have looked like a routine three points at Stadio Carlo Castellani takes on an altogether different tone - particularly considering their hosts' fine form.
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Sitting ninth in the Serie A standings, just 90 minutes from their comeback campaign's halfway point, Empoli can consider 2021 a huge success, as they followed promotion back to the top flight with an expectation-defying start to the current season.
Indeed, the Tuscan outfit seem to be reaching a crescendo as the year comes to an end, as they are unbeaten in six games following Sunday's 1-1 draw at Spezia, where the sides traded own goals during the second half.
That run includes a spectacular Coppa Italia success at Verona, and league victories over Udinese, local rivals Fiorentina and - most impressively of all - Napoli, at Stadio Maradona.
Experienced coach Aurelio Andreazzoli will be certainly be confident that his charges can upstage any of the top teams after taking such a scalp, and memories are yet to fade of the shock win against Juventus earlier this term.
Curiously, though, the Serie B champions have fared less well at the Castellani than on their travels so far, winning just three times at their home ground compared to five on the road. Not only that, but when Milan come to town on Wednesday, they arrive having lost only one of their last nine Serie A matches versus the Azzurri.
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Team News
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Both Rafael Leao and 40-year-old forward Zlatan Ibrahimovic - who picked up a knee injury at the weekend - are ruled out for Milan, whose other striking options are either injured or on their way back from being sidelined.
Ante Rebic and Pietro Pellegri remain unavailable, but Olivier Giroud - just returned after three weeks out - will be asked to start, having made an impact at both ends as a substitute on Sunday.
While Simon Kjaer - out for the rest of the season after undergoing ACL surgery - is deputised for by Alessio Romagnoli at the heart of the visitors' defence, question marks remain over the full-back places, as Alessandro Florenzi and Fode Ballo-Toure could make way for French pair Pierre Kalulu and Theo Hernandez.
Empoli, meanwhile, continue to do without midfield regular Nicolas Haas, who is out of contention with a knee injury sustained early on in the Coppa Italia win at Verona.
Nonetheless, Aurelio Andreazzoli has an otherwise full squad to choose from, leaving at least four men competing for two places up front in his favoured 4-3-1-2 formation.
Alongside on-loan Inter striker Andrea Pinamonti, Federico Di Francesco and Andrea La Mantia, former Milan striker Patrick Cutrone - whose first 63 appearances and 13 goals in Serie A goals came in Rossoneri colours - is hopeful of selection on Wednesday.
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, Romagnoli, Luperto, Parisi; Ricci, Stulac, Zurkowski; Bajrami; Pinamonti, Cutrone
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Florenzi, Tomori, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Diaz, Messias; Giroud
We say: Empoli 1-1 AC Milan
Milan are limping to the finish line in 2021, having started out with dreams of Scudetto glory last January - subsequently dashed by their bitterest rivals - and they could now be taking a similar road heading into the new year.
A lack of attacking thrust has been apparent in recent weeks, and Empoli are more than capable of taking advantage of defensive uncertainty since the devastating injury to Simon Kjaer. Therefore, a point will have to satisfy the visitors before they take stock during the brief winter break.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 48.25%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.42%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
