Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarpsborg 08 win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Kristiansund had a probability of 37.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarpsborg 08 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.81%) and 0-2 (5.46%). The likeliest Kristiansund win was 2-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Kristiansund would win this match.