Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Coventry City win with a probability of 53.3%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 24.34% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Coventry City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Coventry City would win this match.