Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 52.51%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 24.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (6.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Willem II in this match.