Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VVV-Venlo win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Almere City had a probability of 37.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.35%) and 0-2 (5.26%). The likeliest Almere City win was 2-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VVV-Venlo would win this match.