Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 63.14%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 16.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 1-0 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.