Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MVV Maastricht win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 35.59% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.37%) and 2-0 (5.47%). The likeliest VVV-Venlo win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MVV Maastricht would win this match.