Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 72.5%. A draw had a probability of 16.7% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 10.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-2 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.87%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-0 (3.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.