Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 46.59%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.82%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.