Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 56.48%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 22.44% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.83%) and 0-1 (7.57%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 2-1 (5.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.