Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 46.75%. A win for Jong FC Utrecht had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (7.7%). The likeliest Jong FC Utrecht win was 1-0 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.