Second-placed Djurgardens IF host struggling Sirius on Monday evening, as they seek to close the gap at the top of the Allsvenskan.
While the home side remain on the coat-tails of leaders Malmo, their visitors have won only once in their last ten games - most recently losing 4-0 at the hands of the defending champions.
Match preview
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Though the Stockholm club stuttered before the summer break, Djurgardens are still prominent in the Allsvenskan title hunt - picking up four points from two outings at the start of the league's second phase.
At the start of this month, the 2019 champions enjoyed a 3-0 romp against Orebro, with the much-admired Aslak Fonn Witry firing in the opener from the penalty spot before two second-half strikes proved just reward for their dominance, having had two-thirds of the ball and fired in 24 shots on the visitors' goal.
A disappointing goalless draw at lowly Halmstad followed, however, as the side overseen by joint coaches Kim Bergstrand and Thomas Lagerlof failed to register a single strike on target and seemingly lacked a clear 'Plan B'. Nonetheless, a defence featuring solid performers such as Witry and his fellow full-back Elliot Kack posted a third consecutive clean sheet, building on their league-leading defensive record to date.
Coming into this weekend's encounter at Tele2 Arena, where Djurgardens have proved a formidable proposition - in five home games they have conceded only once and beaten chief rivals Malmo - they sit just two points behind the reigning champions, still with a game in hand.
Such strength at their headquarters recently saw club captain Magnus Eriksson declare that his team are destined for the top step of the podium at the season's end.
Denying counter-claims of cockiness by highlighting justifiable confidence in the camp, Eriksson and company are sure to make it an uncomfortable evening for Sirius on Monday - particularly with a number of fans back inside the 30,000-capacity stadium.
The fixture computer has been far from kind to Sirius this past few days, as they travel to Stockholm after a humbling four-goal reverse at the Eleda Stadion last Saturday. Managing only one shot on target, it was a backs-to-the-wall occasion for the Uppsala side, as they trailed from the first minute and conceded two late goals to ultimately reflect Malmo's superiority.
Though they enjoyed a successful return after the break, by beating Mjallby 2-1 thanks to Jakob Ortmark's late winner, in all, Sirius have kept only one clean sheet this season and have leaked 18 goals in the process - the third-highest tally in the league.
In fact, on the road, they have yet to shut any opponent out for a full 90 minutes; conceding 14 times in six trips, including two or more in each of their last four away games. All of which bodes ill for head coach Daniel Backstrom's hopes of causing an upset this time out in Stockholm.
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Team News
Regular first-choice centre-back Hjalmar Ekdal suffered a broken nose in the second half of Djurgarden's draw with Halmstad last week, after receiving an elbow to the face from the hosts' Sadat Karim. It is therefore likely that the brother of Sweden international Albin Ekdal will be replaced by Jesper Lofgren in the back four on Monday.
As on-loan goalkeeper Aleksandr Vasyutin is set to miss most of the season with a knee injury, young Jacob Zetterstrom will provide cover again, having started in the last game before the break and in both subsequent Allsvenskan matches.
Despite drawing a blank last time out, Finland midfielder Rasmus Schuller and former Swansea forward Joel Asoro are poised to play an important role in supplying either Karl Holmberg or veteran striker Emir Kujovic, one of whom will lead the line.
Sirius, meanwhile, have Danish midfielder Marcus Mathisen suspended after he picked up another yellow card against Malmo, so Jacob Ortmark could come into the starting XI.
Alongside Ortmark, striker Christian Kouakou was on the scoresheet in the Blasvart's rare win a fortnight ago, so will hope to get back on the goal trail, having notched five times in the top flight this term.
Djurgardens IF possible starting lineup:
Zetterstrom; Kack, Lofgren, Larsson, Witry; Eriksson, Schuller, Finndell; Asoro, Barkroth, Chilufya
Sirius possible starting lineup:
Nilsson; Roche, Colley, Nwadike, Bjoerkstrom; Shabani, Netabay, Ortmark, Karlsson; Sugita, Kouakou
We say: Djurgardens IF 2-0 Sirius
There are few credible reasons to consider an away win on Monday, as Sirius have suffered at either end of the field in recent weeks, and the second of back-to-back losses versus the top two is to be expected.
Djurgardens will be motivated by their failure to break down a dogged Halmstad last time, so can release that frustration by beating the visitors by at least a two-goal margin.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Djurgardens IF win with a probability of 64.74%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Sirius had a probability of 16.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Djurgardens IF win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.56%) and 1-0 (8.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.78%), while for a Sirius win it was 1-2 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Djurgardens IF would win this match.
