After their long unbeaten home record was ended last week, Athletico Paranaense travel to Mato Grosso, where they meet top-flight debutants Cuiaba on Sunday.
Back-to-back losses in league and continental competition have extended the visitors' winless run to four, while the home side have now lost just one of their last seven matches as they show signs of adapting to life in Serie A.
Match preview
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Finally, Athletico Paranaense's declining away form crept into their game at Arena da Baixada last weekend, as an undefeated streak of 12 home games fell by the wayside with a 2-1 loss to struggling Sao Paulo.
Leaving them sixth in the congested Campeonato Brasileiro standings, two first-half strikes from Pablo were enough to render Renato Kayzer's 28th-minute goal meaningless, as the hosts suffered their first reverse on home soil since a Parana State Championship defeat to Londrina back in May.
Just days later, the Rubo-Negro were beaten again - as their Copa Sudamericana quarter-final tie with LDU Quito got off to a losing start in the Ecuadorian capital.
Three years after lifting their first continental trophy in the 2018 tournament, if they want to repeat the feat, Antonio Oliveira's current side will have to overcome a 1-0 deficit in next week's return leg, as Djorkaeff Reasco's late goal proved just reward for LDU's dominance throughout the 90 minutes.
That result means that El Paranaense have failed to win any of their last four fixtures on the road, but now have an apparently presentable opportunity to break that run as they return to league action against relatively modest opposition.
Still in both the Copa Sudamericana and Copa do Brasil - in which they next meet Santos - at the latter stages, Oliveira will expect his side to return to Parana with all three points to keep them in the hunt for Copa Libertadores qualification.
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Having finally won consecutive games last month, to edge themselves away from the foot of the Serie A standings, Cuiaba have since picked up just two points from their next three outings.
The only two triumphs of their first-ever campaign in the Brazilian elite have been followed by a loss to Corinthians, then two draws - with Internacional and Bahia respectively.
Promoted to Serie B as recently as 2019, before gaining a place in the top tier this season, the Dourado have endured a steep learning curve so far. Nonetheless, their aim of securing survival remains feasible, as they currently sit 18th but remain just four points adrift of a place in the top half of the table.
Former World Cup-winning Brazil full-back Jorginho has been entrusted with the job of keeping the club from the footballing backwater of Mato Grasso afloat, having had an itinerant coaching career to date. He took his place in the Cuiaba hot-seat recently, following 14 appointments over the last 10 years - few of which have resulted in success.
If the former Bayern Munich man's team are to extend their Serie A stay, however, they must improve a disciplinary record which has seen them reduced to 10 men in three of their last six matches - giving Paranaense such an advantage could be fatal to their hopes of a third league win this Sunday.
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Team News
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Athletico will prepare for the weekend's action without striker Matheus Babi, who has undergone surgery on his right knee after a clash with Internacional's Caio Vidal recently. It has been confirmed that the former Botafogo forward is set to miss the rest of the season with cruciate ligament damage.
Lucas Halter is another long-term absentee for the visitors, but there are few other concerns for coach Antonio Oliveira, who is likely to rotate his side following an energy-sapping excursion to Ecuador in midweek.
David Terans started up front versus LDU, but could give way to Renato Kayzer, who has scored twice in his last three games, while veteran full-back Marcio Azevedo is set to be drafted back into the defence.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have Felipe Marques suspended due to his late dismissal against Bahia, while young striker Caio remains unavailable as he recovers from a broken foot.
The hosts have netted only twice in their last three outings, so Elton will be among the forward options that head coach Jorginho can consider on Sunday, having mostly appeared from the bench of late. Former Ludogorets winger Jonathan Cafu is expected to retain his place on the right side of the attack.
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Lucas, Marllon, Paulao, Uendel; Pepe, Correia; Cafu, Gava, Camilo; Elton
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Bento; Marcinho, Heleno, Henrique, Azevedo; Erick, Richard; Christian, Jadson, Eduardo; Kayzer
We say: Cuiaba 0-1 Athletico Paranaense
Neither side have been setting scoreboards alight of late, so a single goal could prove decisive at Arena Pantanal.
The visiting team are more likely to be the ones who edge it, as they can utilise several different attacking options, while lowly Cuiaba are still short of quality in the final third.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 36.69%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.72%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cuiaba in this match.
