The historic regional rivalry between Santos and Corinthians will be renewed this weekend when both sides meet at Corinthians Arena on Sunday in the 34th match for each team in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A.
It has been over 10 years since Peixe have beaten Timao away from home, in what is known as the Classico Alvinegro, as Santos have failed to score in the last two matches played against the club from Tatuape.
Match preview
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Throughout 2021, Corinthians have been able to ride a wave of emotion, never getting too high and not suffering through an extended slump.
That has enabled them to climb back into the top half of the table, currently in fifth despite not winning more than two consecutive fixtures since September, but also failing to lose consecutive matches from that time onward.
Earlier this week, they sat back and were not very aggressive going forward, and eventually, that cost them, as a goal from Bruno Henrique gave Flamengo a 1-0 victory in a match where Time do Povo had only six shots total through 90 minutes, only one of which was on target.
A win this weekend would guarantee an improvement from 2020 for Sylvinho and his team, who came in 12th a year ago, finishing with 51 points, which is one more than they currently have with five games remaining.
They should be supremely confident playing in front of their home fans, winning their last six games which took place at Corinthians Arena and without a defeat there since their opening match in August when they dropped a 3-1 decision to Flamengo.
While this team have not scored as many goals as they did in 2020, with only 35 so far this year, 10 less than last season, they have only conceded 32 goals in 2021, a lot less than the 45 they gave up at the end of their previous domestic campaign.
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A string of positive results has helped Santos get themselves out of an early-season predicament in which they were in danger of dropping down into the second tier of Brazilian football.
Unbeaten now in three consecutive fixtures, Fabio Carille has to be thrilled with the way that his players have stepped up and come together in what was a difficult time for the club early on.
It took a while for this group to get going under their new boss, who replaced Fernando Diniz in early September, as this team went winless in his first nine matches in charge in all competitions, however, they come into this game without conceding in three consecutive fixtures and six points clear of relegation.
They have only tallied 30 goals in their first 33 league games, so it is clear that they are not the most clinical side in front of goal, but they have done a much better job at preventing goals lately, with three straight clean sheets away from home, which should give them a psychological boost knowing how long it has been since they last collected three points in a road fixture versus Corinthians.
There may not be the individual quality and flair from this side like we are used to seeing in years past, but what we have witnessed since the appointment of Carille is a solid commitment to defending and ensuring that other sides do not get many clear-cut chances.
They are pretty comfortable hanging back and preserving their energy for a counter-attack once in a while, with less than 50% of the possession in their previous seven games.
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Team News
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Joao Victor will not be eligible to play in this match due to a yellow card suspension, which is a significant loss as he has been rock solid at the back for this team, starting in their last five contests.
Only one change was made to the starting 11 against Flamengo from their previous match, as Fabio Santos replaced Lucas Piton at the back on Wednesday.
Cassio, the Corinthians goalkeeper, has stopped the last eight shots that Santos have fired his way, collecting two shutouts against them earlier this year and currently with nine in this domestic campaign.
Not to be outdone, Joao Paulo has saved the last 11 shots that he has faced for Peixe, as he has 12 clean sheets so far this year, one less than Walter for third in the Brasileiro Serie A.
A 27th-minute penalty from Marinho proved to be all that Santos would need in their midweek clash with Chapecoense moving him into the team lead with six, one more than Marcos Guilherme, who scored an insurance goal late in that match.
Sandry is still out on the injury front with a ruptured knee ligament, Kevin Malthus has a cruciate ligament issue, and John is still suffering from a meniscal problem.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Piton, Gil, Victor, Fagner; Queiroz, Gabriel, Giuliano; Guedes, Jo, Silva
Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Moraes, Felipe, Boza; Madson, Zanocelo, Leonardo, Guilherme; Pirani; Marinho, Tardelli
We say: Corinthians 1-0 Santos
These rivals always have extra motivation when playing one another, and Corinthians will be hungry to climb into fifth place, currently only two points behind Bragantino for that position which guarantees you a place in the group stage of the Copa Libertadores next year.
Expect to see Santos sit back and allow Corinthians a lot of possession, but unfortunately for Peixe, the attacking options for Timao have done enough to squeak out victories at home for them, plus they rarely concede.
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 52.35%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Santos had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Santos win it was 0-1 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
