Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage
May 2, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Tacuary
3 - 1
Oriente

Carius (14', 52'), Aranda (57')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Alvarez (29' pen.)
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Tacuary and Oriente Petrolero.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tacuary

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Last Game: Estudiantes 4-0 Tacuary
Wednesday, April 19 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana
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Oriente Petrolero

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Last Game: Bragantino 5-0 Oriente
Tuesday, April 18 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tacuary win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Oriente Petrolero had a probability of 30.86% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tacuary win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Oriente Petrolero win was 0-1 (10.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tacuary would win this match.

Result
TacuaryDrawOriente Petrolero
41.22% (0.030000000000001 0.03)27.92% (0.0030000000000001 0)30.86% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Both teams to score 47.08% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
41.3% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)58.7% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.76% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)79.24% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Tacuary Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.99% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)28.01% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.35% (0.011999999999993 0.01)63.65% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Oriente Petrolero Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.4% (-0.031999999999996 -0.03)34.6% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.68% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)71.32% (0.035999999999987 0.04)
Score Analysis
    Tacuary 41.22%
    Oriente Petrolero 30.85%
    Draw 27.91%
TacuaryDrawOriente Petrolero
1-0 @ 12.33% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 8.33% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 7.85% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.53% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 3.33% (0.004 0)
3-2 @ 1.88% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 1.13% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.06% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.78%
Total : 41.22%
1-1 @ 13.08%
0-0 @ 9.69% (0.0069999999999997 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.42% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.72%
Total : 27.91%
0-1 @ 10.28%
1-2 @ 6.95% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.46% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.46% (-0.0050000000000003 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.93% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.56% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 30.85%

rhs 2.0


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