Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 47.07%. A win for Oriente Petrolero had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.03%) and 2-0 (5.82%). The likeliest Oriente Petrolero win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union would win this match.