Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 52.16%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Aparecidense had a probability of 21.44%.

The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.72%) and 1-2 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for an Aparecidense win it was 1-0 (8.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fluminense would win this match.

Result
Aparecidense	Draw	Fluminense
21.44% ( -0.45)	26.4% ( -0.34)	52.16% ( 0.79)

Both teams to score 44.04% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.05% (

0.73)

58.95% (

-0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.57% (

0.56)

79.43% (

-0.56)

Aparecidense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

57.01% (

-0.05)

42.99% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.72% (

-0.04)

79.29% (

0.04)

Fluminense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.25% (

0.66)

22.76% (

-0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.56% (

0.97)

56.44% (

-0.97)

Score Analysis

Aparecidense 21.44%

Fluminense 52.16%

Draw 26.4%

Aparecidense	Draw	Fluminense
1-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.24) 2-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 3.49% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.03% Total : 21.44%	1-1 @ 12.22% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 9.78% ( -0.27) 2-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.57% Total : 26.4%	0-1 @ 14.48% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 10.72% ( 0.13) 1-2 @ 9.05% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 5.29% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 4.47% ( 0.13) 0-4 @ 1.96% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.66% Total : 52.16%