Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 36.82%. A win for Malaga had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.61%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Malaga win was 1-0 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Real Sociedad in this match.