CONCACAF Nations League Gameweek 3
Oct 2, 2026 8.00pm

Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Saint Lucia

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last game
Sep 26, 2026 1.00am
Barbados 2 - 0 St Lucia

Guadeloupe

All competitions
CONCACAF Nations League
Last game
Sep 25, 2026 8.00pm
Bermuda 1 - 2 Guadeloupe

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Guadeloupe win with a probability of 51.14%. A win for Saint Lucia has a probability of 27.8% and a draw has a probability of 21.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Guadeloupe win is 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (6.77%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Saint Lucia win is 2-1 (6.3%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.23%).

Result

Saint Lucia 27.8% ▲ (+0.17)
Draw 21.06% ▲ (+0.08)
Guadeloupe 51.14% ▼ (-0.25)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.95% ▲ (+0.10)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.12% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 15.88% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 2.5 64.77% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 2.5 35.23% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 3.5 43.55% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 3.5 56.45% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 4.5 29.34% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 70.66% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Saint Lucia 21.2% ▼ (-0.17)
Draw 32.35% ▲ (+0.11)
Guadeloupe 46.45% ▲ (+0.06)

Team To Score First

Saint Lucia 33.96% ▼ (-0.08)
No Goal 3.97%
Guadeloupe 62.07% ▲ (+0.08)

Corners

Over 8 63.61% ▲ (+0.08)
Equal 8 10.58% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 8 25.81% ▼ (-0.06)
Over 9 52.34% ▲ (+0.10)
Equal 9 11.28% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 9 36.39% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 10.5 41.29% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 10.5 58.71% ▼ (-0.11)

Saint Lucia Goals

Over 1.5 34.61% ▲ (+0.29)
Under 1.5 65.39% ▼ (-0.29)
Over 2.5 14.81% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 2.5 85.19% ▼ (-0.11)
Over 3.5 5.47% ▲ (+0.06)
Under 3.5 94.53% ▼ (-0.07)

Guadeloupe Goals

Over 0.5 80.27% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 0.5 19.73% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 1.5 54.95% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 1.5 45.05% ▲ (+0.12)
Over 2.5 31.21% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 2.5 68.79% ▲ (+0.10)
Over 3.5 15.65% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 3.5 84.35% ▲ (+0.11)

Score analysis

Saint Lucia 27.8%
Draw 21.06%
Guadeloupe 51.15%
Saint Lucia
2-1 @ 6.3% ▲ (+0.07)
1-0 @ 5.15% ▲ (+0.02)
2-0 @ 3.63% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 3.02%
3-2 @ 2.71%
3-0 @ 1.86% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 5.13% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 27.8%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.23%
2-2 @ 5.77% ▲ (+0.04)
0-0 @ 3.97%
3-3 @ 1.75% ▲ (+0.03)
Other @ 0.34% ▲ (+0.02)
Total : 21.06%
Guadeloupe
1-2 @ 8.78% ▲ (+0.01)
0-1 @ 6.77% ▼ (-0.04)
0-2 @ 6.48% ▼ (-0.08)
1-3 @ 5.42% ▼ (-0.04)
0-3 @ 4.29% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 4.1% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 15.31% ▼ (-0.12)
Total : 51.15%

Head to Head

CONCACAF Nations League
Oct 15, 2023 8.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stade Valette
  • Ange-Freddy Plumain 52' goal
  • Ange-Freddy Plumain 71' goal
  • Andreaw Gravillon 82' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Josh Solomon-Davies 46'
CONCACAF Nations League
Oct 13, 2023 1.00am
2
1
HT : 2 2
FT
  • Melvin Doxilly 25' yellowcard
  • Melvin Doxilly 25' yellowcard
  • Caniggia Elva 45' goal
  • Caniggia Elva 45' goal
  • Javick Macfarlane 58' goal
  • Javick Macfarlane 58' goal
  • Lester Joseph 72' yellowcard
  • Lester Joseph 72' yellowcard
  • goal Jerome Roussillon 29'
  • goal Jerome Roussillon 29'
  • redcard Quentin Annette 90'+1'
  • redcard Quentin Annette 90'+1'